Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 86545.145651 91317.860925 96087.518585 101208.428267 106547.425686 111946.275413 117814.865959
2025-01-26 79958.184388 87362.580980 94966.198700 103347.471122 112315.972421 121614.390288 131972.850180
2025-02-02 75288.420558 84551.219130 94267.829120 105198.596048 117130.434090 129737.383288 144042.160326
2025-02-09 71081.238798 81702.232253 93044.859430 106023.409072 120425.634626 135880.433050 153680.702615
2025-02-16 67007.340192 78629.484482 91239.926234 105886.436247 122374.867591 140307.735575 161229.832401
2025-02-23 63967.828758 76468.707850 90226.414321 106418.799322 124879.948931 145196.154089 169166.215508
2025-03-02 61037.365197 74238.489220 88959.527905 106499.156575 126730.133418 149234.447827 176057.832602
2025-03-09 59167.504017 73103.857609 88831.291389 107777.714249 129860.027513 154659.921991 184487.537928
2025-03-16 56432.599408 70819.704836 87248.440526 107255.402271 130812.479499 157516.320315 189916.240637
2025-03-23 55144.750720 70172.274019 87513.279745 108834.792808 134165.916229 163116.425479 198511.864995
2025-03-30 53618.885690 69161.397759 87280.501516 109766.486361 136712.934859 167752.005795 205979.379382
2025-04-06 51841.389877 67767.966341 86521.901213 110008.155917 138391.369644 171335.272771 212196.586044
2025-04-13 49918.422207 66157.463069 85477.096016 109897.426257 139663.435400 174479.880769 217973.284967
2025-04-20 49187.125902 65993.851385 86173.028372 111890.774737 143476.467522 180673.132360 227432.104741
2025-04-27 48469.926265 65810.376698 86815.760224 113799.652775 147182.021533 186750.684349 236789.543114
2025-05-04 47295.810254 65000.141418 86640.489492 114664.272128 149588.191629 191255.363124 244264.703478
2025-05-11 45711.027100 63608.716776 85688.049446 114515.266380 150708.764923 194176.954465 249812.833767
2025-05-18 44547.345775 62719.277086 85331.723373 115081.691201 152693.484781 198142.997113 256641.202709
2025-05-25 43229.589081 61584.383057 84623.410125 115167.140981 154049.800692 201321.941302 262503.935365
2025-06-01 42545.389604 61257.596894 84929.706002 116528.935556 157004.528993 206481.494990 270833.638019
2025-06-08 41067.080106 59829.485443 83771.131607 115972.623399 157500.202296 208565.883699 275342.792424
2025-06-15 40606.030148 59747.903618 84351.966115 117654.702968 160846.387760 214222.196475 284332.885964
2025-06-22 39882.618372 59286.353574 84413.997237 118646.836002 163302.366828 218766.433538 291952.110401